Kamala Harris’ Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Texas, According to Polls

Recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight suggest that while former President Donald Trump maintains a lead in Texas over Vice President Kamala Harris, this year’s presidential race in the Lone Star State may be more competitive than initially anticipated.
Most surveys conducted among likely voters in the state in June showed Trump with a significant lead over President Joe Biden. However, recent polls suggest that Harris, who became the Democratic nominee following Biden’s withdrawal on July 21, may be narrowing the gap in Texas.
A series of surveys conducted over the past few months show Trump consistently ahead of the vice president in Texas, though the margin varies. The most recent poll by Quantus Polls and News, conducted between August 29 and 30 among 1,000 registered voters, gives Trump an 8-point lead over Harris, 52 to 44 percent.
This latest poll aligns with a trend observed in earlier surveys. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Clean and Prosperous America, conducted between August 21 and 22, showed Trump leading by 5 points, with 49 percent support compared to Harris’ 44 percent. An alternative model from the same pollster using different weighting showed a narrower 3-point lead for Trump.
A key poll that has caught attention comes from the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs. This survey of 1,365 likely voters, conducted between August 5 and 16, shows Trump leading Harris by about five points, 49.5 percent to 44.6 percent.
This represents a shift from an earlier poll by the same institutions conducted in June and July, which had shown Trump with a 9-point lead over Biden. The change suggests that Harris’ entry into the race may have altered the dynamics in Texas.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris campaign, as well as Trump’s spokesperson, via email on Saturday for comment.
The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs and Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs poll also revealed interesting voter movement. When resurveying 878 respondents from their June poll, researchers found that Trump retained 97 percent of his June vote, while Harris retained 96 percent of Biden’s June vote. Notably, 44 percent of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters switched to Harris compared to only 21 percent shifting to Trump.
Kennedy Jr., an independent presidential candidate, dropped out of the race last week and endorsed Trump.
Despite these signs of a tightening race, other polls still show Trump with a more substantial lead. An ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters, conducted between July 31 and August 13, had Trump ahead by seven points, 53 percent to Harris’ 47 percent, in the Lone Star State.
As it stands, Trump is leading by 6.6 points in Texas, according to Race to the White House’s polling average. However, with several weeks to go before Election Day, both campaigns will be closely watching Texas, with its crucial 40 electoral votes, for any signs of shifting political winds.
Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980, but recent demographic changes and shifting political alignments have led some to consider it a potential battleground state.